PAVE / Preventing and Addressing Violent Extremism through Community Resilience in the Balkans and MENA

PAVE was a comparative research project implemented by the South-East Europe Programme of ELIAMEP. It examined root causes and driving factors of violent extremism in local communities across seven countries in the MENA region and the Balkans.

The PAVE Project

The EU research project PAVE – Preventing and Addressing Violent Extremism through Community Resilience in the Balkans and MENA – aimed to tackle the global issue of radicalisation by examining its root causes and driving factors. Based on a comparative assessment of local communities with features of vulnerability or resilience to violent extremism across seven case study countries, the 13 international partner institutions developed concrete policy proposals to inform citizens and stakeholders within and beyond the regions under investigation. The consortium received EUR 3 million funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme.

Based on an interdisciplinary, participatory and inter-regional approach, the main objectives of the PAVE were:

• advanced evidence-based knowledge on violent extremism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as well as the Western Balkans beyond the state-of-the-art, and
• strengthened the capacity of policy-makers and community leaders, and support multi-stakeholder exchange for an effective prevention strategy between the European Union and its neighborhood.

To achieve these objectives PAVE conducted comprehensive analysis on the drivers and contexts of violent extremism at the interface between religion, politics and identity, with a specific focus on factors of community vulnerability to ideological and behavioural patterns of radicalisation. PAVE assessed the relevance and effectiveness of preventive initiatives against violent extremism, with a specific focus on measures to enhance community resilience. The four thematic areas of investigation were:

• interface between religious, political, and ethnic/sectarian extremisms.
• interaction between religious and state institutions.
• on- and offline narratives and (de-)radicalisation.
• transnational interactions, including impact on and from Europe.

The PAVE consortium encompassed empirical studies in selected municipalities of four Balkan countries (Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Serbia) and three MENA countries (Tunisia, Lebanon, Iraq) conducting comprehensive analysis of the similarities and differences between the regions. Empirical research was led by universities or think tanks located in each of the respective countries, and by external academic institutions with thematic and regional expertise. Additionally, security practitioners, policy-makers, community (e.g. religious) leaders, civil society representatives and those working with at-risk groups were involved from early stages of the research endeavor. Regular stakeholder committees were organized in each fieldwork country to engage key social actors throughout the project. EU and European policy-makers were also addressed through policy dissemination events in Brussels and EU project partner countries.

The fieldwork research combined qualitative and quantitative methods, including key informant interviews and focus group discussions, discourse analysis of social media data, social network cluster analysis, community surveys and statistical analysis, Geographic Information System (GIS) risk assessment tools, and a randomised field experiment.

Finally, the project developed evidence-based tools and guidelines for policy and practitioner audiences such as community stakeholders (religious leaders, mayors, educators, civil society organisations, women and youth), policy-makers and wider public in the EU, MENA and the Balkans. It also designed an interactive risk map spanning across three regions and a toolkit of cross-regional vulnerability/resilience factors, online open access training modules for capacity building and teaching (e.g., on how to use religious traditions against extremists’ narratives), and policy guidelines for multi-stakeholder engagement in preventive policies at the community level.

The PAVE Research Reports – Results from the Empirical Research

The PAVE consortium has published 8 research reports on fieldwork results. Drawing comparisons between different field sites within one country, between countries, and finally between the Western Balkans and MENA regions, the reports are situated at different levels of comparative abstraction to extract the essence of the gathered data and identify relevant patterns of vulnerability and resilience to violent extremism that lend themselves to targeted policy and civil society interventions.

Centered on the three main thematic research areas of the PAVE project (WP3: cumulative extremisms, WP4: interactions between state and religious institutions, and WP5: online and offline dynamics), the reports contain dense and comprehensive information collected in 7 research countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Iraq, Kosovo, Lebanon, North Macedonia, Serbia and Tunisia.

The working paper on cumulative extremisms in the Western Balkans  compiles cross-country findings from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, North Macedonia and Kosovo. Here, “cumulative extremisms”, one of the core innovative theoretical concepts of the PAVE project is tested against the empirical reality in the Western Balkans, showing how the legacy of the wars of the 1990s materialises in widely institutionalised ethnic segregation. Incompatible narratives about the past manifest in polarisation of opinions, and antagonistic extremist ideologies that are fed by self-victimisation and othering. At the same time, prospects for resilience against radicalisation exist in the implementation of impactful CSO work, improved education and a positive role played by religious leaders.

Two working papers look separately at the interactions between religious and state institutions in the Western Balkans (Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as the MENA region (Tunisia, Lebanon and Iraq). At the same time as disentangling the complex institutional set-ups of all of these country cases, the reports find that cooperation between religious and political institutions, as well as the recognition of informal religious institutions as relevant actors for (de)radicalisation can contribute to vulnerability as well as resilience at the community level. In addition, the ethnically and sectarian set-up of the countries under study consistently contributed to the emergence of overlapping forms of extremisms in these societies.

Two further working papers investigate the dimensions of online and offline (de-)radicalisation dynamics in Kosovo and North Macedonia, in addition to comparing Tunisia and Lebanon. While no general comparability between patterns of online radicalisation as they are known to take place in countries in the Global North and our countries of study can be established, the reports are able to trace how the dissemination of extremist narratives flows between the online and offline sphere. Further, the reports identify for what purposes extremist organisations make use of social media channels.

The cross-country synthesis reports for work packages 3 (Cumulative Extremism in the Balkans and MENA region), 4 (Interactions between State and Religious Institutions in the Balkans and MENA region), (paper hyperlink) and 5 (Online and Offline (De)radicalisation in the Balkans and MENA region), broaden the perspective of each of the thematic clusters by comparing findings from the Western Balkans and MENA region, hereby identifying cross-regional trends and differences.

The PAVE Policy Briefs – Recommendations on How to Foster Community Resilience

PAVE project goes beyond research: On the basis of our research findings, PAVE partners have developed training tools and guidelines to support those who foster resilience against radicalisation within their communities, such as religious leaders, civil servants, civil society organisations, and women or youth groups. We have produced seven policy briefs issuing recommendations to policy-makers in each of the countries we investigated. Each policy brief summarises the country-specific methodology and findings and presents targeted recommendations on improving the effectiveness and relevance of P/CVE strategies by the respective governments, international actors and civil society organisations.

After three years of research and analysis within the PAVE consortium, we are convinced that a common political strategy including all parts of society is needed to address the complex problem of violent extremism. With its policy recommendations addressed at government, civil society and international actors that are tailored to each research country, PAVE contributes to the search for comprehensive PVE strategies that are responsive to local needs, and thereby contribute to building vibrant, proactive and resilient communities.

In addition to the policy briefs for each country under investigation, the PAVE team developed the Policy Guidelines for Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration for supporting Community Resilience against Violent Extremism. These guidelines offer concrete recommendations for designing and implementing coordinated multi-stakeholder approaches to prevent violent extremism. They are intended for use by policymakers, practitioners, faith-based actors, organizations, and civil society entities working together at the local level.

The PAVE Book – “Vulnerability and Resilience to Violent Extremism: An Actor-Centric Approach”

The PAVE consortium wrote a book based on the findings of the project which could be of much interest to students of countering violent extremism, terrorism, political violence, security studies, and International Relations generally. The book “Vulnerability and Resilience to Violent Extremism: An Actor-Centric Approach” examines the actors that shape societal dynamics leading to, or preventing, violent extremism from taking root in their communities, including state representatives, religious institutions, and civil society actors. The volume contributes to an emerging stream of research focusing on intra- and inter-group dynamics to explain the emergence and persistence of, or resilience against, violent extremism. It utilises an actor-centric approach, uncovering the landscape of actors that play relevant roles in shaping societal dynamics leading to, or preventing, violent extremism affecting their communities. The analysis builds on new empirical evidence collected in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Serbia, Iraq, Lebanon, and Tunisia. This allows for an innovative comparative perspective on two regions in the European neighbourhood that are rarely studied together, even though they seem to share common patterns of (de-)radicalisation and violent extremism despite their distinct historical, political, and cultural trajectories and relations with the EU. In both regions, the book analyses the roles of and interactions between state, political, religious, and civil society actors in shaping community vulnerability to and/or resilience against violent extremism. Different types of community leaders are equipped with varying levels of authority, trust, legitimacy, and influence over community members. As such, the categories of actors analysed can play either detrimental or beneficial roles, which makes vulnerability and resilience to violent extremism two sides of the same coin.

ELIAMEP contributed to this book with a chapter on the prevention of radicalisation in North Macedonia with Routledge Studies in Countering Violent Extremism. The chapter provides a comparative analysis of the political, social, economic, and cultural factors and drivers that fuel radicalisation in two municipalities of North Macedonia, based on qualitative data collected in Tetovo and Kumanovo. It does so by uncovering the different pull and push factors that make parts of the communities in both Tetovo and Kumanovo vulnerable to extremist narratives, enabling the different extremist groups (ethnonationalists, religiously motivated extremists, and violent right-wing extremists) to recruit sympathisers and followers. The chapter elaborates on the role that civil society plays in the prevention of violent extremism as well as in the de-radicalisation process in the researched communities. The aim is to provide a clear image of the role, contribution, and the context in which civil society actors should operate as these can act as bridges between the local communities and the government. The chapter argues that coordination and cooperation among all actors involved in the P/CVE mechanism are key to making North Macedonia’s national plan for the prevention of violent extremism more responsive to the needs of society.

The Open Access version of this Book is available here .

The PAVE Partners

Berghof Foundation Operations gGmbH (Germany)

Fondation Maison des Sciences de l’Homme (France)

University of Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina)

Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (Kosovo)

Uppsala University (Sweden)

American University of Beirut (Lebanon)

Fundación Euroárabe de Altos Estudios (Spain)

Sfax University (Tunisia)

Trinity College Dublin (Ireland)

Finn Church Aid (Finland)

EURICE – European Research and Project Office GmbH (Germany)

Open Think Tank (Iraq)

PAVE’s main output presented in an animated clip

Over three years, the PAVE consortium has greatly enjoyed its collaborative engagement with a diverse set of experienced and complementary partners on this timely project. Thanks to the dedication of the researchers involved, PAVE’s results are an important milestones on the way to making the prevention of violent extremism more responsive to contextual needs, better tailored to contemporary threats and emerging radicalization trends, and less bound up with securitized approaches.

PAVE’S PRACTICAL TOOLS CAN CONTRIBUTE TO BUILDING COMMUNITY RESILIENCE FROM THE BOTTOM UP