Why must enlargement be treated as a strategic investment? – ELIAMEP experts’ views

As European Council President Antonio Costa reiterated during his visit to Sarajevo, enlargement is no longer simply an institutional process. It is a geostrategic investment in Europe’s peace, stability and security. Today’s EU–Western Balkans Summit in Tivat, Montenegro, offers an opportunity to move beyond a narrative that focuses exclusively on what the region must do for the European Union and instead recognise what the Western Balkans already contribute to Europe’s future.

The debate on enlargement is often framed around reforms, conditionality and accession benchmarks. These remain important as enlargement is a process governed by rules including democracy, rule of law, human rights and freedom of press and media among others. Yet the changing geopolitical environment requires a broader perspective. The Western Balkans should increasingly be understood not as passive recipients of European support, but as active contributors to European security, defence readiness, economic resilience and strategic autonomy.

ELIAMEP‘s recent work through the think nea – New Narratives of EU Integration initiative demonstrates that the case for enlargement is no longer solely political. It is also strategic, economic and security-driven.

The Western Balkans Are Already Contributing to Europe’s Security

Europe’s debate on enlargement has remained largely disconnected from its debate on defence. Yet the two can no longer be treated separately. The Western Balkans are increasingly evolving from security consumers into security contributors.

Key trends include:

• Defence spending across the region is rising, with most countries meeting or exceeding NATO benchmarks.
• Western Balkan states are modernising their armed forces and increasing interoperability with European and NATO partners.
• The region has provided meaningful support to Ukraine, including military equipment, ammunition and other forms of assistance.
• Western Balkan personnel continue to contribute to EU, NATO and UN missions through specialised units, trainers, medical teams and peacekeepers.

At a time when Europe faces unprecedented security challenges, these contributions demonstrate political commitment, operational reliability and strategic alignment.

Europe’s Defence Readiness Requires the Western Balkans

The war in Ukraine exposed Europe’s shortages in ammunition production, defence-industrial capacity and supply-chain resilience. The Western Balkans offer concrete solutions.

The region hosts approximately 200 defence-related companies and retains significant industrial capacities inherited from the former Yugoslav defence-industrial complex. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia remain major producers of ammunition and military equipment, while Albania, North Macedonia and others are rebuilding defence-industrial capabilities.

Several strategic advantages stand out:

• Bosnia and Herzegovina possesses substantial artillery shell production capacity with potential for further expansion.
• Regional industries can produce both NATO and Soviet-standard ammunition.
• Production costs are often lower than within the EU.
• Existing facilities can contribute to addressing Europe’s urgent defence-production gaps.

At the same time, non-EU actors are increasingly investing in these sectors. Without stronger European engagement, the EU risks missing an opportunity to integrate the region into its emerging defence ecosystem.

Geography Matters

The Western Balkans are not located on the margins of Europe. They sit at the centre of several critical European transport and security corridors.

The region functions as:

• A land bridge connecting Central Europe, the Eastern flank, Ukraine and the Eastern Mediterranean.
• A key route for military mobility and logistics.
• An important contributor to supply-chain resilience.

In an era where infrastructure, connectivity and mobility have become security issues, the strategic relevance of the Western Balkans has increased significantly.

The Western Balkans Can Strengthen Europe’s Economic Security

The strategic importance of the region extends beyond defence. The Western Balkans possess substantial reserves of critical and strategic raw materials, including copper, aluminium, nickel, antimony, lithium, magnesium, cobalt and rare earth elements. These resources are increasingly important for Europe’s green transition, industrial competitiveness, defence production and economic security.

Yet the current situation reveals a strategic imbalance:

• Raw materials are often exported to China for processing.
• Higher-value products subsequently enter European markets.
• Local value creation remains limited.
• European strategic autonomy remains vulnerable to external dependencies.

A more integrated approach would allow Europe to strengthen supply-chain resilience while supporting economic convergence and industrial development in the region.

Enlargement and Strategic Integration Must Advance Together

The central conclusion emerging from ELIAMEP’s work is straightforward: Europe’s enlargement agenda and Europe’s strategic priorities increasingly overlap.

Whether the issue is defence readiness, military mobility, industrial resilience, critical raw materials, support to Ukraine or supply-chain security, the Western Balkans are already part of the solution. The challenge for the European Union is therefore not whether the region matters strategically, but how quickly existing policies can reflect this reality.

Today’s EU–Western Balkans Summit should reinforce a simple message: enlargement is not only about preparing the Western Balkans for the European Union. It is also about preparing the European Union for the geopolitical realities it faces.

The Western Balkans are not Europe’s periphery. They are an increasingly important part of Europe’s security, resilience and future prosperity. Recognising this reality is essential if enlargement is to fulfil its strategic purpose.