In her article “Geopolitics vs Merit: The EU’s New Enlargement Dilemma”, which was published on Decode 39, Valbona Zeneli asked a number of leading experts to assess whether the European Union’s renewed focus on enlargement marks a genuine turning point or just another rhetorical moment. Their reflections examine the tension between geopolitical urgency and the EU’s long-standing merit-based approach, offering insights into whether this political reawakening can translate into tangible progress for the Western Balkans, Ukraine, and Moldova—and how long the current window of opportunity is likely to remain open.

Dr Ioannis Armakolas, in his capacity as Head of the South-East Europe Programme of ELIAMEP and Director of ELIAMEP’s think nea – New Narratives of EU Integration initiaitve, which is supported by OSF-WB, pointed out that the widely-cited tension between geopolitics and merit in EU enlargement is largely a false dilemma. He argued that enlargement has faltered not due to the absence of rules or strategic rationale, but because of the EU’s persistent political indecision and reluctance to act resolutely—whether by rewarding meaningful reform, addressing democratic backsliding, or making bold geopolitical choices. According to Armakolas, a truly geopolitical enlargement policy requires the EU to accelerate its own internal reforms, admit the most prepared candidates within this decade, and clearly signal that ambiguity is no longer acceptable, while also recognizing accession countries as strategic assets whose capacities can strengthen Europe’s security, autonomy, and global readiness.

You can read the piece here.

Publication: 16/12/2025 Decode 39
Projects
48322Beyond the false dilemma
think nea | New Narratives of EU integration
Ioannis Armakolas
Ana KrstinovskaAlexandra VoudouriIoannis AlexandrisFrauke M. Seebass
Experts
Ioannis Armakolas Head of the Wider Europe Programme; Senior Research Fellow