The Arctic shipping routes puzzle: A multi-criteria decision analysis

Rising temperatures due to climate change are accelerating permafrost thaw in the Arctic, opening new maritime routes that could serve as alternatives to traditional global shipping corridors. The article focuses on evaluating three main Arctic shipping routes: the Northern Sea Route (NSR), the Northwest Passage (NWP), and the Transpolar Sea Route (TSR). We employ a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework to assess a set of often competing criteria that capture the complex economic, geopolitical, environmental and technological factors shaping Arctic maritime logistics. Using the Weighted Sum Model (WSM) alongside scenario-based sensitivity analysis, we compare these routes and test the robustness of our results. Our findings show that the NWP consistently emerges as a balanced option, while the rankings of the NSR and TSR vary substantially across scenarios. Overall, the article demonstrates that, in addition to shipping costs, transit times, and sea-ice conditions, geopolitical and environmental factors are equally crucial in determining future route planning.

You can read the full article, written by Assc. Prof. Dimitris Gavalas, Senior Research Associate, ELIAMEP, Marianna Terezaki, Junior Research Fellow, ELIAMEP and Dr George Dikaios, Senior Research Fellow, ELIAMEP, open access, in the following link: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X26001569