The EU’s Strategic Dependence on Critical Raw Materials

Europe’s dependence on critical raw materials, deriving mainly from the green and digital transition, is best understood as a problem of asymmetric interdependence rather than a simple trade deficit. The principal vulnerabilities are located in specific chokepoints of the supply chain (refining and conversion, intermediates, logistics corridors, finance, and standards). In the context of an intensifying geopolitical competition and a competitive EU-China relationship, such chokepoints can become instruments of leverage, often exercised through selective trade restrictions.

• Demand is rising for structural reasons. Europe’s energy transition and industrial policies increase mineral demand. International Energy Agency underlines that demand for minerals used in clean energy technologies will more than double by 2040.
• Processing is often the weakest link. Europe is often most exposed not at the mine extraction level, but in processing, conversion, and intermediate products needed for manufacturing.
• China’s leverage derives from scale and policy tools. China’s position is strongest in several processing and intermediate segments. China weaponises tools such as export controls to slow or reshape flows.
• The EU has moved from elaboration to implementation. The Critical Raw Materials Act entered into force on 23 May 2024, and the EU has started to implement it through “Strategic Projects”, including 47 projects inside the EU and 13 in third countries. Further initiatives were developed by late 2025 in the context of RESourceEU.
• Rules can improve resilience, but timing matters. Compared with China’s faster, more coordinated model, Europe risks turning regulatory credibility into a liability.

Read here in pdf the Policy paper by Panagiotis Moumtsakis, DPhil student in Politics, University of Oxford.