In ELIAMEP Thesis 3/2008, entitled Searching for a Solution to the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle, Thanos Dokos, Director General of ELIAMEP, explores possibilities how to cope with the challenges posed by the Iranian nuclear programme. For this purpose, he analyses Iran’s motives and security considerations, Iranian domestic politics and the nuclear issue, the potential consequences of an Iranian nuclearization, the available options for defusing the crisis, the role of Europe and he ends his paper with a number of key recommendations:
1) De-emphasize the nuclear question 2) Withdraw the precondition of Iran suspending its enrichment activities before any meaningful negotiations take place 3) Adopt a “dual track” strategy: emphasize the possible gains, while quietly explaining the possible cost of heavier sanctions 4) Based on the “Iraq and its neighbours” format, initiate a dialogue to discuss perceptions about regional security challenges; participants should include GCC countries, Iran, Iraq, Yemen, the U.S. and the EU 5) The U.S. should use backdoor channels of communication with Iran to prepare the ground for any public initiative by President Obama 6) Whereas any initiative can only come from the West, Iran should shun its hostile rhetoric and present its own visions and proposals for regional security 7) The proposal for the creation of a regional/multinational enrichment centre should be re-introduced 8) GCC countries should put forward local initiatives for confidence building in the Gulf region.
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Thanos Dokos, Searching for a Solution to the Iranian Nuclear Puzzle, ELIAMEP Thesis 3/2008, Athens, November 2008