Toolkit for EU decision-makers on the geopolitics of EU Democracy Promotion (EUDP)

This paper by Dr. Isabelle Ioannides, Senior Research Fellow, South-East Europe Programme, ELIAMEP, is published in the context of the project EMBRACing changE – Overcoming Blockages and Advancing Democracy in the European Neighbourhood. EMBRACE is a multi-country research initiative that aims to enhance democracy promotion efforts in the EU’s neighbourhood by identifying key obstacles to democratisation and formulating evidence-based strategies to overcome them. The project draws on locally led research and stakeholder engagement across twelve case studies in five regions: the Western Balkans, Eastern Europe, the Southern Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa.

Focusing on Work Package 8 of the project, the report “Toolkit for EU decision-makers on the geopolitics of EU Democracy Promotion (EUDP)” outlines a conceptual design for a novel approach aimed at strengthening the EU’s ability to respond to democratic backsliding in its neighbourhood. Building on the EMBRACE project’s analysis of factors conducive to democratic opening, such as political structures, historical legacies, and the role of critical junctures, the paper proposes a shift from static and fragmented democracy promotion tools to a dynamic, adaptive, and context-specific system.

The report develops its blueprint based on findings from scenario-building workshops in North Macedonia, Serbia, Georgia, and Ukraine, as well as interviews with stakeholders in Algeria. These consultations interrogated the EU’s existing conceptual framework for democracy promotion and highlighted the need for locally grounded, evidence-based approaches. Central to the proposed Toolkit is a co-design process with local stakeholders, ensuring that EU policy instruments are informed by country-specific realities and informal power structures.

The paper underscores that the Toolkit’s added value lies in its integration of democracy measurement frameworks, data collection and management tools, foresight and forecasting methods, and alert and rapid response systems. These elements are conceived as part of a feedback loop where measurement informs foresight, foresight guides policy design, and outcomes feed back into continuous learning. In this way, the Toolkit leverages local expertise and EU instruments to achieve smarter and more resilient democratisation outcomes.

The report concludes that the EU’s democracy promotion efforts must evolve into a living, continuously adaptive system capable of moving from reactive responses to proactive strategies. By fostering country-specific customisation, local co-creation, and synergies across EU external action instruments, the proposed Toolkit offers a pathway to more effective and resilient democracy promotion both in the five case study countries and beyond.

Read the report here.