A number of developments in the Eastern Neighbourhood since 1999 have affected EU-Turkish security relations. In particular the rise of Russian influence in the region and Turkey’s increasingly complex relations with both the EU and Russia will affect EU-Turkish relations. This paper provides background on the Eastern Neighbourhood’s security context from 1999 and investigates the drivers that currently have the greatest effect on EU-Turkish security interests and threat perceptions in the region. The research suggests the EU-Turkish security relationship will be primarily conflictual, but with key points of cooperation particularly in fighting Russia’s information warfare tactics.

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