{"id":52999,"date":"2025-10-30T12:03:21","date_gmt":"2025-10-30T09:03:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/?p=52999"},"modified":"2026-03-05T17:08:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-05T14:08:07","slug":"pos-ektimate-ti-dynamiki-kai-tis-prokliseis-tis-ellinikis-protovoulias-5x5-stin-anatoliki-mesogeio-oi-analytes-tou-eliamep-apantoun","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/pos-ektimate-ti-dynamiki-kai-tis-prokliseis-tis-ellinikis-protovoulias-5x5-stin-anatoliki-mesogeio-oi-analytes-tou-eliamep-apantoun\/","title":{"rendered":"How would you evaluate the dynamics and challenges of Greece\u2019s 5×5 initiative in the Eastern Mediterranean? – ELIAMEP experts’ views"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, <\/strong>Senior Research Fellow and Head, Turkey Programme, ELIAMEP; <\/em>Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Bilkent University<\/em><\/p>\n

The Greek 5×5 initiative aims to upgrade Greece’s regional role in the Eastern Mediterranean and extend a hand of friendship to Libya and Turkey. Until recently, Greece undertaking trilateral initiatives in the Eastern Mediterranean with Egypt and Cyprus, or Israel and Cyprus, allowed Turkey to claim that the purpose of such initiatives was to “encircle” Turkey, and that they took place without taking Turkey’s own vital interests in the Eastern Mediterranean into account. Nonetheless, it is considered unlikely that Turkey will participate without the issue of Turkish Cypriot representation in the talks being settled first. And since it is given that the occupied territories will not be represented, and as Turkey does not recognise the Republic of Cyprus, the success of the initiative will depend on finding a way for the Turkish Cypriots to be represented via bi-communal committees within the structures of the Republic of Cyprus. This effort may be the first sign that the parties intend to resume inter-communal talks for the resolution of the Cyprus Issue following Erh\u00fcrman\u2019s election.<\/p>\n

Constantine Kapsaskis, <\/strong>Research Fellow, ELIAMEP<\/em><\/p>\n

The answer depends on the goal of the initiative. If it is a bone fide attempt to delimit the maritime zones of the countries involved, the difficulties in solving this equation continue to seem insurmountable. Convergence between the participants seems no more likely within the structure of a forum than without, as even with boundless optimism it is unlikely to expect that Turkey and Libya will move away significantly from the Turkish-Libyan Memorandum of Understanding and their claims in the Eastern Mediterranean. Additionally, before the difficult negotiations have even begun, Greece\u2019s proposal has met a roadblock in the form of Turkish resistance to the participation of the Republic of Cyprus in the forum without an equivalent representative of the Turkish Cypriot community leadership.<\/p>\n

If Greece\u2019s goal, however, is to set the terms of a future discussion, before they are imposed by others, then initiative\u2019s dynamic may be appraised under different terms. The approach of the current United States administration to critical international problems is at the same time fluid, as it often fluctuates, but also decisive. Thus, if the decision to resolve the issue is a fait accompli, against a backdrop of increased interest by US energy giants of operating in the region, the crucial question is how can the Greek proposal persuade the administration in Washington DC, and primarily President Trump himself, that delimitation can and must take place within the framework of a multilateral forum and international law, and not as a business deal governed by complementary economic and geopolitical gains.<\/p>\n

Triantafyllos Karatrantos, <\/strong>Research Associate, ELIAMEP<\/em><\/p>\n

Maritime zones, migration, energy, managing the environment, and civil protection\u2014the issues around which the five-party initiative announced by the Greek Prime Minister is being planned\u2014are matters that require multilateral cooperation, understanding and dialogue. Without them, all we get are parallel monologues and unilateral moves which reproduce disagreements and fail to create a climate of trust\u2014and, through trust, cooperation. Greece is, in any case, a country that invests in multilateral cooperation and dialogue-based processes, primarily in the context of respect for international law and national sovereignty.<\/p>\n

The regional coordination initiative is therefore a logical and ambitious endeavour aimed at fostering conditions favourable to stability.<\/p>\n

However, it is clear both from the countries that seem likely to participate (Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, Egypt, Libya) and those that have not been announced as participants (Israel and Syria), that the undertaking will be a difficult one, and that multiple challenges will have to be faced which could, in a worst-case scenario, evolve into problems.<\/p>\n

Consequently, if the momentum the initiative has built up is to be transformed into a positive impact, a clear framework is required, along with sincerity on the part of all the countries participating and faith in the logic of multilateral cooperation. The latter, in particular, cannot be taken for granted.<\/p>\n

Finally, the role played by the EU and the US is another aspect that will have to be factored in.<\/p>\n

Panayotis Tsakonas, <\/strong>Senior Research Fellow and\u00a0Head, Foreign Policy & Security Programme, ELIAMEP; Professor, University of Athens<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Greece has rightly taken the initiative to advance a proposal concerning the Eastern Mediterranean\u2014effectively reviving an earlier initiative (September 2020) originally put forward by the President of the European Council, which Athens had opposed at the time, arguably as a knee-jerk reaction to President Erdo\u011fan\u2019s endorsement of it. There remain, however, a number of obstacles to overcome and several contentious issues to resolve if the\u00a0Forum on the Eastern Mediterranean<\/i>\u00a0is to materialize\u2014among them, the participation of the Turkish Cypriot community, which Turkey will advocate for, and the question of Libya\u2019s representation. From this perspective, the prospects of the initiative being realized in the near term appear limited.<\/span><\/p>\n

Greece\u2019s\u2014albeit not yet fully developed\u2014decision to reintroduce this proposal comes at a time of heightened activity in the Eastern Mediterranean: the recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza following a decisive intervention by the U.S. President; Turkey\u2019s geopolitical upgrading; and Tufan Erh\u00fcrman\u2019s victory in the elections of the Turkish Cypriot community. These developments coincide with a shift in Greek\u2013Turkish relations away from the \u201ccalm waters\u201d of recent years toward stagnation or relative turbulence.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, and given the possibility of President Trump becoming involved in Greek\u2013Turkish relations and the Cyprus question, Greece has a vested interest in promoting initiatives that address key shared challenges\u2014such as environmental protection, civil protection, and migration\u2014facing the coastal states of the Eastern Mediterranean. Chief among these challenges is, of course, the delimitation of maritime zones. Such issues should be tackled within a regulatory framework capable of coordinating and supporting bilateral engagement through the timely notification of all parties and in full compliance with the provisions of UNCLOS (the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea). Within this framework, projects such as the Cyprus\u2013Crete electricity interconnector could proceed more smoothly and with reduced risk of tension.<\/p>\n

As for the next steps, it would be useful\u2014indeed, perhaps essential\u2014for the proposed five-state format to be expanded to include the European Union itself (the originator of the initial idea and a principal party to UNCLOS). The Forum could be also linked to certain institutional initiatives recently announced by the EU for the region, such as the “Pact for the Mediterranean”.<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ioannis N. Grigoriadis, Senior Research Fellow and Head, Turkey Programme, ELIAMEP; Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Bilkent University The Greek 5×5 initiative aims to upgrade Greece’s regional role in the Eastern Mediterranean and extend a hand of friendship to Libya and Turkey. Until recently, Greece undertaking trilateral initiatives in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":53096,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[492],"tags":[],"program":[25],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52999"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52999"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52999\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":55145,"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52999\/revisions\/55145"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53096"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52999"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52999"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52999"},{"taxonomy":"program","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.eliamep.gr\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/program?post=52999"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}